The war waged by the US and Israel against Iran, along with Tehran’s reprisals in the Gulf region, has profoundly disrupted global energy supply, triggering a surge in prices and fueling inflationary pressures. In this context, the risk of stagflation is causing growing concern.

Even before the outbreak of the conflict in the Gulf, the global economy was already showing signs of slowing, accompanied by rising prices, says Paul Baker, founder and CEO of International Economics Consulting.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the unusual use of tariffs by the US had already heightened concerns about the global economy. Rising consumer prices – linked to these tariff measures and the conflict in Ukraine – were already weighing on supply chains.

In Europe, the risk of stagflation appears more imminent than in other regions of the world, particularly due to the region’s high vulnerability not only to fluctuations in oil prices but also to surging gas prices.

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