Foresight Analysis for Asia-Pacific Trade Integration Strategy

The Project at A Glance

International Economics conducted a foresight analysis to support a regional integration strategy for Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) economies. The project was implemented under United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).

What We Found

In light of the significant and rapid transformations in the global trade landscape over recent months, it is imperative to assess how the evolving trade environment – shifting from a multilateral, rules-based system to a more bilateral, power-driven framework – may impact regional trade integration. This shift has been driven largely by the weakening of the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism and the erosion of its foundational principles in favour of a power-based approach. While some regions experience low intra-regional trade levels, prompting calls to deepen integration efforts, the Asia-Pacific region – where nearly one-fifth of trade occurs within the region – stands as a successful example that justifies further regional integration initiatives. In this context, International Economics conducted a comprehensive foresight analysis to support this evaluation with an aim to identify potential implications for APTA member countries and inform future capacity-building initiatives and regional cooperation efforts led by ESCAP.

Our Strategy and Impact

Our team conducted a comprehensive foresight analysis to support the development of a regional integration strategy for APTA economies. This study engaged a diverse range of experts to envision future developments through an inclusive and participatory process, incorporating multiple perspectives within a robust analytical framework that accounts for complex policy interactions. The analysis evaluated the current state of regional integration and trade dynamics since 2019, establishing a baseline “business as usual” scenario alongside three alternative scenarios to project potential economic trajectories through 2040. While primarily focusing on trade and investment within the Asia-Pacific regional integration context, the study also considered broader global trade dynamics. Drawing on extensive data and authoritative reports from leading international organizations, as well as specialized literature, the analysis employed a collaborative approach to capture both anticipated trends and unforeseen factors shaping the region’s future.

Our Core Solutions

The world economy is continuously impacted by new risks and challenges, causing significant disruptions to international trade. At International Economics, we provide strategic insights to assist organisations, businesses, and governments in anticipating risks, building resilience, mitigating impacts, and supporting our clients on their recovery against such shocks.

We support decision-makers with informed and evidence-based analyses and policy options. We map out key government measures and responses to the risks and challenges to formulate strategies for our clients to respond and adapt to the new social, political, and economic landscapes.